Global primary aluminum production increased by three percent last year to 72.9 million tons, setting another record high. China accounted for nearly 60 percent of total output. The positive trend continued in January 2025, with global output rising by 2.7 percent.
Aluminum inventories at exchanges showed mixed trends in February 2025: LME stocks declined, with end-of-month inventories totaling just over 520,000 tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons compared to the beginning of the year. SHFE aluminum stocks fell below 200,000 tons in January but rebounded to 235,000 tons by the end of February. Comex warehouses held 15,000 tons at the end of February, about one-third of the previous year's levels. LME stocks of recycled alloy have remained stable at around 1,600 tons for an extended period.
The price of primary aluminum increased by an average of three percent in February 2025. However, during the month, aluminum prices experienced significant fluctuations, with a spread of 120 US dollars per ton between the minimum and maximum values. The number of trading contracts rose by more than 20 percent in February.
Trend: We anticipate the primary aluminum price to fluctuate by approximately plus or minus 300 US dollars around a level of 2,600 US dollars per ton by the end of Q2 2025. The price of aluminum alloy is expected to remain around 300 US dollars per ton lower.
Source: Euroguss
