By the end of July 2025, global primary aluminium production was 1.3 percent above the level of the same period last year. We expect moderate growth in primary production globally over the next few years, rising to 78 million tons by 2027. On the demand side, the trend towards lightweight construction and e-mobility continues to provide impetus.
Aluminium stocks showed a relatively uniform development overall in August 2025 on the SHFE and LME. On the SHFE, warehouse stocks rose by 8.5 percent on average over the month, while on the LME they increased by 6.7 percent over the same period.
The average price of primary aluminium in August 2025 was 2.8 percent higher than in the previous month, following a 6.4 percent increase in July. US trade policy had a significant impact on the markets: President Trump initially imposed import tariffs of 25 percent, which were raised to 50 percent at the beginning of June. In August, the duties were extended to more than 400 aluminium and steel products. In this context, it is striking that imports of US aluminium scrap, which is subject to a duty of only 15 percent, have increased in recent months.
Trend: We anticipate a fluctuation of approximately 300 US dollars around the value of 2,500 US dollars per ton for the primary aluminium price until the end of the third quarter of 2025. The alloy price will stabilise at a similar level.
